Although the Dallas Cowboys' playoff chances are slim, they are not dead. That could change if they lose on Sunday Night Football against the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) has won four in a row to surge to the top of the NFC South and has a great opportunity to win the division. The Cowboys (6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) have won three of four, but the Bucs will be the toughest team they face in these five weeks.
The Bucs are 3.5- or 4-point favorites over Dallas. The over/under is 48 or 48.5 points. Here are our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions and best bets.
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Buccaneers have perhaps the nicest climate of all the NFL's outdoor stadiums, but even they shine when they hit some fast, indoor turf. Led by Baker Mayfield, the Tampa Bay offense has been good all season, but it reaches another level when playing indoors.
Against the Falcons in Atlanta, the Bucs averaged 7 yards per play and scored 30 points. Against the Saints in New Orleans, they averaged 8.2 yards per play on their way to 594 total yards and 51 points. Against the Chargers in LA last week, they averaged 7.7 yards per play and amassed 506 yards and 40 points.
In those three games, Mayfield has thrown 11 touchdown passes, with at least three TDs in each. Now, Tampa gets another game indoors. The +300 odds available at FanDuel for him to throw at least three more TDs are too good to pass up.
Knowing that track record, there is some awesome value for Tampa Bay in the team total betting markets. DraftKings offers +124 odds for Over 27.5 points -- just one more point than the baseline suggested above. You can wager on Over 33.5 points at +310 odds, too.
Despite the sub-par record, Dallas hasn't been a pushover lately. Part of that, however, has been because of opposition. The Cowboys' last four opponents -- Commanders, Giants, Bengals, Panthers -- do not have quality pass rushes. That will change Sunday against the Buccaneers. It will be a different world for Cooper Rush and company.
So, not only do I expect Tampa to score a lot of points, but I also expect them to limit Dallas' offense just enough to cover 3.5 points.
Best odds: -198 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tampa Bay has momentum and motivation. The Bucs are hungry to finish strong and win the division to clinch a home playoff game.
Their offense should flourish, and it will be difficult for Dallas to keep up. If the going gets too tough for the Cowboys, they may check out mentally. That's bad news against a Tampa Bay team with everything to play for.
Best odds: +170 at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas has momentum, too. Having won three of their last four, the Cowboys have gained some confidence.
They could stay in this game until the end if they don't fall behind early. They'll have to solve the Tampa Bay pass rush, but momentum sometimes makes up for lack of quality so don't count out the Cowboys immediately.